Baseline characteristics of patients with heart failure with mildly reduced or preserved ejection fraction: The FINEARTS-HF trial.

AIMS: To describe the baseline characteristics of participants in the FINEARTS-HF trial, contextualized with prior trials including patients with heart failure (HF) with mildly reduced and preserved ejection fraction (HFmrEF/HFpEF). The FINEARTS-HF trial is comparing the effects of the non-steroidal mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist finerenone with placebo in reducing cardiovascular death and total worsening HF events in patients with HFmrEF/HFpEF. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients with symptomatic HF, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≥40%, estimated glomerular filtration rate ≥ 25 ml/min/1.73 m2, elevated natriuretic peptide levels and evidence of structural heart disease were enrolled and randomized to finerenone titrated to a maximum of 40 mg once daily or matching placebo. We validly randomized 6001 patients to finerenone or placebo (mean age 72 ± 10 years, 46% women). The majority were New York Heart Association functional class II (69%). The baseline mean LVEF was 53 ± 8% (range 34-84%); 36% of participants had a LVEF <50% and 64% had a LVEF ≥50%. The median N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) was 1041 (interquartile range 449-1946) pg/ml. A total of 1219 (20%) patients were enrolled during or within 7 days of a worsening HF event, and 3247 (54%) patients were enrolled within 3 months of a worsening HF event. Compared with prior large-scale HFmrEF/HFpEF trials, FINEARTS-HF participants were more likely to have recent (within 6 months) HF hospitalization and greater symptoms and functional limitations. Further, concomitant medications included a larger percentage of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors and angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitors than previous trials. CONCLUSIONS: FINEARTS-HF has enrolled a broad range of high-risk patients with HFmrEF and HFpEF. The trial will determine the safety and efficacy of finerenone in this population.

Determination of Clinically Acceptable Analytical Variation of Cardiac Troponin at Decision Thresholds.

BACKGROUND: Clinical decision-making for risk stratification for possible myocardial infarction (MI) uses high-sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs-cTn) thresholds that range from the limit of detection to several-fold higher than the upper reference limit (URL). To establish a minimum analytical variation standard, we can quantify the effect of variation on the population clinical measures of safety (sensitivity) and effectiveness [proportion below threshold, or positive predictive value (PPV)]. METHODS: From large datasets of patients investigated for possible MI with the Abbott hs-cTnI and Roche hs-cTnT assays, we synthesized datasets of 1 000 000 simulated patients. Troponin concentrations were randomly varied several times based on absolute deviations of 0.5 to 3 ng/L and relative changes of 2% to 20% around the low-risk threshold (5 ng/L) and URLs, respectively. RESULTS: For both assays at the low-risk thresholds, there were negligible differences in sensitivity (<0.3%) with increasing analytical variation. The proportion of patients characterized as low risk reduced by 30% to 29% (Roche) and 53% to 44% (Abbott). At the URL, increasing analytical variation also did not change sensitivity; the PPV fell by less than 3%. For risk stratification, increased delta thresholds (change between serial troponin concentrations) increased sensitivity at the cost of a decreased percentage of patients below the delta threshold, with the largest changes at the greatest analytical variation. CONCLUSIONS: At the low-risk threshold, analytical variation up to 3 ng/L minimally impacted the safety metric (sensitivity) but marginally reduced effectiveness. Similarly, at the URL even relative variation up to 25% minimally impacted safety metrics and effectiveness. Analytical variation for delta thresholds did not negatively impact sensitivity but decreased effectiveness.

Longitudinal NT-proBNP: Associations With Echocardiographic Changes and Outcomes in Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: The relationship of serial NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) measurements with changes in cardiac features and outcomes in heart failure (HF) remains incompletely understood. We determined whether common clinical covariates impact these relationships. METHODS AND RESULTS: In 2 nationwide observational populations with HF, the relationship of serial NT-proBNP measurements with serial echocardiographic parameters and outcomes was analyzed, further stratified by HF with reduced versus preserved left ventricular ejection fraction, inpatient versus outpatient enrollment, age, obesity, chronic kidney disease, atrial fibrillation, and attainment of ≥50% guideline-recommended doses of renin-angiotensin system inhibitors and ß-blockers. Among 1911 patients (mean±SD age, 65.1±13.4 years; 26.6% women; 62% inpatient and 38% outpatient), NT-proBNP declined overall, with more rapid declines among inpatients, those with obesity, those with atrial fibrillation, and those attaining ≥50% guideline-recommended doses. Each doubling of NT-proBNP was associated with increases in left ventricular volume (by 6.1 mL), E/e' (transmitral to mitral annular early diastolic velocity ratio) (by 1.4 points), left atrial volume (by 3.6 mL), and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (by -2.1%). The effect sizes of these associations were lower among patients with HF with preserved ejection fraction, atrial fibrillation, or advanced age (Pinteraction<0.001). A landmark analysis identified that an SD increase in NT-proBNP over 6 months was associated with a 27% increase in the risk of the composite event of HF hospitalization or all-cause death between 6 months and 2 years (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.27 [95% CI, 1.15-1.40]; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The relationships between NT-proBNP and structural/functional remodeling differed by age, presence of atrial fibrillation, and HF phenotypes. The association of increased NT-proBNP with increased risk of adverse outcomes was consistent in all subgroups.

Prognostic performance of soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor for heart failure or mortality in Western and Asian patients with acute breathlessness.

AIMS: The performance of circulating soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) for predicting the composite endpoint of subsequent heart failure (HF) hospitalisation and/or death at 1 year was assessed in (i) patients with undifferentiated breathlessness, and generalisability was compared in (ii) disparate Western versus Asian sub-cohorts, and in (iii) the sub-cohort adjudicated with HF. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients with acute breathlessness were recruited from the emergency departments in New Zealand (NZ, n = 612) and Singapore (n = 483). suPAR measured in the presentation samples was higher in patients incurring the endpoint (n = 281) compared with survivors (5.2 ng/mL vs 3.1 ng/mL, P < 0.0001). The discriminative power of suPAR for endpoint prediction was c-statistic of 0.77 in the combined population, but was superior in Singapore than NZ (c-statistic: 0.83 vs 0.71, P < 0.0001). Although the highest suPAR tertile (>4.37 ng/mL) was associated with risks of >4-fold in NZ, >20-fold in Singapore, and ≥3-fold in HF for incurring the outcome, there was no interaction between country and suPAR levels after adjustment. Multivariable analysis indicated suPAR to be robust in predicting HF/death at 1-year [hazard ratio: 1.9 (95% CI:1.7 to 2.0) per SD increase] and improved risk discrimination for outcome prediction in HF (∆0.06) and for those with NT-proBNP >1000 pg/mL (∆0.02). CONCLUSION: suPAR is a strong independent predictor of HF and/or death at 1 year in acutely breathless patients, in both Asian and Western cohorts, and in HF. suPAR may improve stratification of acutely breathless patients, and in acute HF, for risk of later onset of heart failure or mortality.

Convalescent Growth Differentiation Factor-15 and Long-Term Outcomes after an Acute Coronary Syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15) has been shown to be associated with adverse clinical outcomes in patients after an acute coronary syndrome when measured soon after an event. Although dynamic in the acute phase after myocardial injury, GDF-15 has been shown to remain stable during convalescence. In this study, we aimed to assess the value of GDF-15 as a long-term prognostic marker for clinical outcomes when measured in the convalescent phase following an acute coronary syndrome. METHODS: GDF-15 concentrations were measured in 1945 patients who were recruited between 2002 and 2009 to the Coronary Disease Cohort Study. For this analysis, follow-up was curtailed at 10 years and association of GDF-15 with all-cause death, cardiovascular death, recurrent myocardial infarction, and heart failure hospitalizations were assessed with multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis. RESULTS: After 10 years of follow-up, there were 648 deaths (348 from cardiovascular causes), 500 admissions for myocardial infarction, and 436 for heart failure. Four-month convalescent GDF-15 demonstrated a robust independent association with all endpoints, which remained after adjustment for Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events score and other convalescent biomarkers. When compared to the lowest quartile of GDF-15 concentrations, those in the highest quartile had a 3-fold increased risk of all-cause death. CONCLUSIONS: Convalescent plasma GDF-15 is a strong and independent predictor of 10-year all-cause death, cardiovascular death, recurrent myocardial infarction, and heart failure admission following an acute coronary syndrome. AUSTRALIAN NEW ZEALAND CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRY TRIAL ID: ACTRN12605000431628.

Utilizing Quality of Life Adjusted Days Alive and Out of Hospital in Heart Failure Clinical Trials.

BACKGROUND: In heart failure (HF) trials, there has been an emphasis on utilizing more patient-centered outcomes, including quality of life (QoL) and days alive and out of hospital. We aimed to explore the impact of QoL adjusted days alive and out of hospital as an outcome in 2 HF clinical trials. METHODS: Using data from 2 trials in HF (Guiding Evidence Based Therapy Using Biomarker Intensified Treatment in Heart Failure [GUIDE-IT] and Study of Dietary Intervention under 100 mmol in Heart Failure [SODIUM-HF]), we determined treatment differences using percentage days alive and out of hospital (%DAOH) adjusted for QoL at 18 months as the primary outcome. For each participant, %DAOH was calculated as a ratio between days alive and out of hospital/total follow-up. Using a regression model, %DAOH was subsequently adjusted for QoL measured by the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire Overall Summary Score. RESULTS: In the GUIDE-IT trial, 847 participants had a median baseline Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire Overall Summary Score of 59.0 (interquartile range, 40.8-74.3), which did not change over 18 months. %DAOH was 90.76%±22.09% in the biomarker-guided arm and 88.56%±25.27% in the usual care arm. No significant difference in QoL adjusted %DAOH was observed (1.09% [95% CI, -1.57% to 3.97%]). In the SODIUM-HF trial, 796 participants had a median baseline Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire Overall Summary Score of 69.8 (interquartile range, 49.3-84.3), which did not change over 18 months. %DAOH was 95.69%±16.31% in the low-sodium arm and 95.95%±14.76% in the usual care arm. No significant difference was observed (1.91% [95% CI, -0.85% to 4.77%]). CONCLUSIONS: In 2 large HF clinical trials, adjusting %DAOH for QoL was feasible and may provide complementary information on treatment effects in clinical trials.

Derivation and Validation of Thresholds Using Synthetic Data Methods for Single-Test Screening of Emergency Department Patients with Possible Acute Myocardial Infarction Using a Point-of-Care Troponin Assay.

BACKGROUND: Single-sample (screening) rule-out of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) with troponin requires derivation of a single-test screening threshold. In data sets with small event numbers, the lowest one or two concentrations of myocardial infarction (MI) patients dictate the threshold. This is not optimal. We aimed to demonstrate a process incorporating both real and synthetic data for deriving such thresholds using a novel pre-production high-precision point-of-care assay. METHODS: cTnI concentrations were measured from thawed plasma using the Troponin I Next (TnI-Nx) assay (i-STAT; Abbott) in adults on arrival to the emergency department with symptoms suggestive of AMI. The primary outcome was an AMI or cardiac death within 30 days. We used internal-external validation with synthetic data production based on clinical and demographic data, plus the measured TnI-Nx concentration, to derive and validate decision thresholds for TnI-Nx. The target low-risk threshold was a sensitivity of 99% and a high-risk threshold specificity of >95%. RESULTS: In total, 1356 patients were included, of whom 191 (14.1%) had the primary outcome. A total of 500 synthetic data sets were constructed. The mean low-risk threshold was determined to be 5 ng/L. This categorized 38% (95% CI, 6%-68%) to low-risk with a sensitivity of 99.0% (95% CI, 98.6%-99.5%) and a negative predictive value of 99.4% (95% CI, 97.6%-99.8%). A similarly derived high-risk threshold of 25 ng/L had a specificity of 95.0% (95% CI, 94.8%-95.1%) and a positive predictive value of 74.8% (95% CI, 71.5%-78.0%). CONCLUSIONS: With the TnI-Nx assay, we successfully demonstrated an approach using synthetic data generation to derive low-risk thresholds for safe and effective screening.

Implantable Hemodynamic Monitors Improve Survival in Patients With Heart Failure and Reduced Ejection Fraction.

BACKGROUND: Trials evaluating implantable hemodynamic monitors to manage patients with heart failure (HF) have shown reductions in HF hospitalizations but not mortality. Prior meta-analyses assessing mortality have been limited in construct because of an absence of patient-level data, short-term follow-up duration, and evaluation across the combined spectrum of ejection fractions. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this meta-analysis was to determine whether management with implantable hemodynamic monitors reduces mortality in patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and to confirm the effect of hemodynamic-monitoring guided management on HF hospitalization reduction reported in previous studies. METHODS: The patient-level pooled meta-analysis used 3 randomized studies (GUIDE-HF [Hemodynamic-Guided Management of Heart Failure], CHAMPION [CardioMEMS Heart Sensor Allows Monitoring of Pressure to Improve Outcomes in NYHA Class III Heart Failure Patients], and LAPTOP-HF [Left Atrial Pressure Monitoring to Optimize Heart Failure Therapy]) of implantable hemodynamic monitors (2 measuring pulmonary artery pressures and 1 measuring left atrial pressure) to assess the effect on all-cause mortality and HF hospitalizations. RESULTS: A total of 1,350 patients with HFrEF were included. Hemodynamic-monitoring guided management significantly reduced overall mortality with an HR of 0.75 (95% CI: 0.57-0.99); P = 0.043. HF hospitalizations were significantly reduced with an HR of 0.64 (95% CI: 0.55-0.76); P < 0.0001. CONCLUSIONS: Management of patients with HFrEF using an implantable hemodynamic monitor significantly reduces both mortality and HF hospitalizations. The reduction in HF hospitalizations is seen early in the first year of monitoring and mortality benefits occur after the first year.

Hierarchical End Points in Prior Heart Failure Trials and the HEART-FID Trial.

BACKGROUND: Clinical trials in heart failure (HF) traditionally use time-to-event analyses focusing on death and hospitalization for HF. These time-to-first event analyses may have more limited abilities to assess the probability of benefiting from a therapy, especially if that benefit manifests as improved functional status rather than reduced risk of death or HF hospitalization. Hierarchical end points including clinical outcomes and patient status measures allow for ranked evaluation of outcomes in 1 metric assessing whether patients randomized to intervention or control are more likely to derive an overall benefit while also allowing more patients to contribute to the primary outcome. METHODS: We review the rationale for using hierarchical end points in HF trials, provide examples of HF trials that used this type of end point, and discuss its use in the HEART-FID trial (Randomized Placebo-Controlled Trial of Ferric Carboxymaltose as Treatment for Heart Failure With Iron Deficiency), the largest HF trial to date implementing a hierarchical end point analysis for the primary outcome. RESULTS: Using a hierarchical end point as the primary outcome allows for the inclusion of different types of outcomes in 1 ranked end point, making it possible to more holistically assess the potential utility of a new therapy on patient well-being and outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Hierarchical end points assess the potential utility of a new therapy on patient well-being and outcome more holistically than time-to-first event analysis. Trials that would not have been feasible due to decreasing rates of death and hospitalization in the HF population can use hierarchical end points to successfully power studies to identify promising HF therapies. The HEART-FID trial used hierarchical end points to better determine the role of intravenous ferric carboxymaltose in patients with HF. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT03037931.

Baseline characteristics of patients in the randomized study to investigate the efficacy and safety of ferric carboxymaltose as treatment for heart failure with iron deficiency: HEART-FID trial.

BACKGROUND: Prior clinical trials have investigated intravenous iron in patients with heart failure (HF) and iron deficiency, but the safety and efficacy of this therapy remains unclear. METHODS: We report the baseline demographics and clinical characteristics of patients enrolled in the HEART-FID study and compare HEART-FID participants with patients within other contemporary clinical trials of patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), including other intravenous iron trials. RESULTS: In the 3,065 participants randomized in HEART-FID, median (IQR) age was 69.7 (62.0-76.5) years, 1,037 (33.8%) were female, 322 (10.5%) were Black, median ejection fraction was 32% (25%-37%), 1,837 (60.0%) had ischemic etiology, and baseline median NT-proBNP was 1,462 (721-2,966) pg/mL. Median baseline hemoglobin was 12.6 (11.6-13.6) g/dL, and median 6-minute walk test distance was 272 (196-350) m, similar to prior intravenous iron HFrEF trials. Common comorbidities included atrial fibrillation/flutter (43.7%), and type 2 diabetes (45.2%). Compared with several recent HFrEF trials, patients enrolled in HEART-FID had similar baseline demographics and clinical characteristics, though a greater proportion of women and Black participants were recruited in HEART-FID. In HEART-FID, HFrEF therapy included a beta-blocker in 92.5%, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker/angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitors (ARNI) in 86.1% (with 29.7% ARNI), and a mineralocorticoid antagonist (MRA) in 55.6%. CONCLUSIONS: Patients enrolled in HEART-FID were similar to those enrolled in other contemporary HFrEF trials and registries, including trials of intravenous iron in HFrEF. However, the HEART-FID cohort is substantially larger and more racially diverse than prior trials of intravenous iron in HFrEF. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03037931).

Ferric Carboxymaltose in Heart Failure with Iron Deficiency.

BACKGROUND: Ferric carboxymaltose therapy reduces symptoms and improves quality of life in patients who have heart failure with a reduced ejection fraction and iron deficiency. Additional evidence about the effects of ferric carboxymaltose on clinical events is needed. METHODS: In this double-blind, randomized trial, we assigned ambulatory patients with heart failure, a left ventricular ejection fraction of 40% or less, and iron deficiency, in a 1:1 ratio, to receive intravenous ferric carboxymaltose or placebo, in addition to standard therapy for heart failure. Ferric carboxymaltose or placebo was given every 6 months as needed on the basis of iron indexes and hemoglobin levels. The primary outcome was a hierarchical composite of death within 12 months after randomization, hospitalizations for heart failure within 12 months after randomization, or change from baseline to 6 months in the 6-minute walk distance. The significance level was set at 0.01. RESULTS: We enrolled 3065 patients, of whom 1532 were randomly assigned to the ferric carboxymaltose group and 1533 to the placebo group. Death by month 12 occurred in 131 patients (8.6%) in the ferric carboxymaltose group and 158 (10.3%) in the placebo group; a total of 297 and 332 hospitalizations for heart failure, respectively, occurred by month 12; and the mean (±SD) change from baseline to 6 months in the 6-minute walk distance was 8±60 and 4±59 m, respectively (Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney P = 0.02; unmatched win ratio, 1.10; 99% confidence interval, 0.99 to 1.23). Repeated dosing of ferric carboxymaltose appeared to be safe with an acceptable adverse-event profile in the majority of patients. The number of patients with serious adverse events occurring during the treatment period was similar in the two groups (413 patients [27.0%] in the ferric carboxymaltose group and 401 [26.2%] in the placebo group). CONCLUSIONS: Among ambulatory patients who had heart failure with a reduced ejection fraction and iron deficiency, there was no apparent difference between ferric carboxymaltose and placebo with respect to the hierarchical composite of death, hospitalizations for heart failure, or 6-minute walk distance. (Funded by American Regent, a Daiichi Sankyo Group company; HEART-FID ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03037931.).

Evolution of NT-proBNP During Prerandomization Screening in VICTORIA: Implications for Clinical Outcomes and Efficacy of Vericiguat.

BACKGROUND: Selecting high-risk patients with heart failure with potentially modifiable cardiovascular events is a priority. Our objective was to evaluate NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) changes during a 30-day screening to establish (1) the frequency and direction of changes; (2) whether a relationship exists between changes in NT-proBNP and the primary composite outcome of cardiovascular death and heart failure hospitalization; and (3) whether changes in NT-proBNP relate to vericiguat's clinical benefit. METHODS: VICTORIA (A Study of Vericiguat in Participants With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction) randomized 5050 patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction and a recent worsening heart failure event. We studied 3821 patients who had NT-proBNP measured during screening and at randomization. RESULTS: Sixteen hundred exhibited a >20% reduction, 1412 had ≤20% change, and 809 showed a >20% rise in NT-proBNP levels. As compared with the primary composite outcome of 28.4/100 patient-years (497 events; 31.1%) in patients with a >20% decline in NT-proBNP, those with >20% during screening had worse outcomes; 48.8/100 patient-years (359 events; 44.4%); adjusted hazard ratio, 1.61 (95% CI, 1.39-1.85). Those patients with a ≤20% change in NT-proBNP had intermediate outcomes; 39.2/100 patient-years (564 events; 39.9%); adjusted hazard ratio, 1.33 (95% CI, 1.17-1.51). No relationship existed between NT-proBNP changes during screening and vericiguat's effect on cardiovascular death and heart failure hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial differences occurred in the rates of cardiovascular death and heart failure hospitalization, especially in patients with a >20% change in NT-proBNP levels during screening interval. Sequential NT-proBNP levels add important prognostic information meriting consideration in future heart failure trials. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT02861534.

Regional Handling and Prognostic Performance of Circulating Insulin-Like Growth Factor Binding Protein-7 in Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Regional handling and the prognostic performance of insulin-like growth factor binding protein (IGFBP)-7, in contrast or in combination with other candidate biomarkers, in chronic heart failure (CHF) remain uncertain. OBJECTIVES: The authors investigated the regional handling of plasma IGFBP-7 and its association with long-term outcomes in CHF in comparison with selected circulating biomarkers. METHODS: Plasma concentrations of IGFBP-7, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high-sensitivity troponin-T, growth differentiation factor-15, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein were measured prospectively in a cohort with CHF (n = 863). The primary outcome was the composite of heart failure (HF) hospitalization or all-cause mortality. In a separate non-HF cohort (n = 66) undergoing cardiac catheterization, transorgan gradients of plasma IGFBP-7 concentrations were evaluated. RESULTS: Among 863 patients (age 69 ± 14 years, 30% female, 36% HF with preserved ejection fraction), IGFBP-7 (median: 121 [IQR: 99-156] ng/mL) related inversely to left ventricular volumes but directly to diastolic function. Above the optimal cutoff, IGFBP-7 ≥110 ng/mL was independently associated with 32% increased hazard of the primary outcome: 1.32 (95% CI: 1.06-1.64). Among the 5 markers, IGFBP-7 had the highest hazard for a proportional increment in plasma concentrations independent of HF phenotype in single- and double-biomarker models, and provided incremental prognostic value beyond clinical predictors plus NT-proBNP, high-sensitivity troponin-T, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (P < 0.05). Assessment of regional concentrations indicated renal secretion of IGFBP-7 in contrast to renal extraction of NT-proBNP, possible cardiac extraction of IGFBP-7 in contrast to secretion of NT-proBNP, and common hepatic extraction of both peptides. CONCLUSIONS: Transorgan regulation of IGFBP-7 is distinct from NT-proBNP. Circulating IGFBP-7 independently predicts adverse outcomes in CHF with a strong prognostic performance when compared with other well-recognized cardiac-specific or noncardiac prognostic markers.

Implementation of an integrated emergency department acute atrial fibrillation pathway safely reduces cardioversions and hospitalisations: A comparative pre-post study.

OBJECTIVE: Atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF/AFL) accounts for high rates of ED presentations and hospital admissions. There is increasing evidence to suggest that delaying cardioversion for acute uncomplicated AF is safe, and that many patients will spontaneously revert to sinus rhythm (SR). We conducted a before-and-after evaluation of AF/AFL management after a change in ED pathway using a conservative 'rate-and-wait' approach, incorporating next working day outpatient clinic follow-up and delayed cardioversion if required. METHODS: We performed a before-and-after retrospective cohort study examining outcomes for patients who presented to the ED in Christchurch, New Zealand, with acute uncomplicated AF/AFL in the 1-year period before and after the implementation of a new conservative management pathway. RESULTS: A total of 360 patients were included in the study (182 'Pre-pathway' vs 178 'Post-Pathway'). Compared to the pre-pathway cohort, those managed under the new pathway had an 81.2% reduction in ED cardioversions (n = 32 vs n = 6), and 50.7% reduction in all cardioversions (n = 65 vs n = 32). There was a 31.6% reduction in admissions from ED (n = 54 vs n = 79). ED length of stay (3.9 h vs 3.8 h, net difference -0.1 h, 95% confidence interval [CI] -0.6 to 0.3), 1-year ED AF representation (32.4% vs 26.4%, net difference -6.0% [95% CI -16.0% to 3.9%]), 1-year ED ischaemic stroke presentation (2.2% in both groups) and 7-day all-cause mortality rates (hazard ratio 1.05 [95% CI 0.6 to 1.9]) were all similar. CONCLUSIONS: Using a conservative 'rate-and-wait' strategy with early follow-up for patients presenting to ED with AF/AFL can safely reduce unnecessary cardioversions and avoidable hospitalisations.

Personalized diagnosis in suspected myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND: In suspected myocardial infarction (MI), guidelines recommend using high-sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs-cTn)-based approaches. These require fixed assay-specific thresholds and timepoints, without directly integrating clinical information. Using machine-learning techniques including hs-cTn and clinical routine variables, we aimed to build a digital tool to directly estimate the individual probability of MI, allowing for numerous hs-cTn assays. METHODS: In 2,575 patients presenting to the emergency department with suspected MI, two ensembles of machine-learning models using single or serial concentrations of six different hs-cTn assays were derived to estimate the individual MI probability (ARTEMIS model). Discriminative performance of the models was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and logLoss. Model performance was validated in an external cohort with 1688 patients and tested for global generalizability in 13 international cohorts with 23,411 patients. RESULTS: Eleven routinely available variables including age, sex, cardiovascular risk factors, electrocardiography, and hs-cTn were included in the ARTEMIS models. In the validation and generalization cohorts, excellent discriminative performance was confirmed, superior to hs-cTn only. For the serial hs-cTn measurement model, AUC ranged from 0.92 to 0.98. Good calibration was observed. Using a single hs-cTn measurement, the ARTEMIS model allowed direct rule-out of MI with very high and similar safety but up to tripled efficiency compared to the guideline-recommended strategy. CONCLUSION: We developed and validated diagnostic models to accurately estimate the individual probability of MI, which allow for variable hs-cTn use and flexible timing of resampling. Their digital application may provide rapid, safe and efficient personalized patient care. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS: Data of following cohorts were used for this project: BACC ( www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov ; NCT02355457), stenoCardia ( www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov ; NCT03227159), ADAPT-BSN ( www.australianclinicaltrials.gov.au ; ACTRN12611001069943), IMPACT ( www.australianclinicaltrials.gov.au , ACTRN12611000206921), ADAPT-RCT ( www.anzctr.org.au ; ANZCTR12610000766011), EDACS-RCT ( www.anzctr.org.au ; ANZCTR12613000745741); DROP-ACS ( https://www.umin.ac.jp , UMIN000030668); High-STEACS ( www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov ; NCT01852123), LUND ( www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov ; NCT05484544), RAPID-CPU ( www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov ; NCT03111862), ROMI ( www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov ; NCT01994577), SAMIE ( https://anzctr.org.au ; ACTRN12621000053820), SEIGE and SAFETY ( www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov ; NCT04772157), STOP-CP ( www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov ; NCT02984436), UTROPIA ( www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov ; NCT02060760).

An integrated signature of extracellular matrix proteins and a diastolic function imaging parameter predicts post-MI long-term outcomes.

Background: Patients suffering from acute myocardial infarction (AMI) are at risk of secondary outcomes including major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and heart failure (HF). Comprehensive molecular phenotyping and cardiac imaging during the post-discharge time window may provide cues for risk stratification for the outcomes. Materials and methods: In a prospective AMI cohort in New Zealand (N = 464), we measured plasma proteins and lipids 30 days after hospital discharge and inferred a unified partial correlation network with echocardiographic variables and established clinical biomarkers (creatinine, c-reactive protein, cardiac troponin I and natriuretic peptides). Using a network-based data integration approach (iOmicsPASS+), we identified predictive signatures of long-term secondary outcomes based on plasma protein, lipid, imaging markers and clinical biomarkers and assessed the prognostic potential in an independent cohort from Singapore (N = 190). Results: The post-discharge levels of plasma proteins and lipids showed strong correlations within each molecular type, reflecting concerted homeostatic regulation after primary MI events. However, the two molecular types were largely independent with distinct correlation structures with established prognostic imaging parameters and clinical biomarkers. To deal with massively correlated predictive features, we used iOmicsPASS + to identify subnetwork signatures of 211 and 189 data features (nodes) predictive of MACE and HF events, respectively (160 overlapping). The predictive features were primarily imaging parameters, including left ventricular and atrial parameters, tissue Doppler parameters, and proteins involved in extracellular matrix (ECM) organization, cell differentiation, chemotaxis, and inflammation. The network signatures contained plasma protein pairs with area-under-the-curve (AUC) values up to 0.74 for HF prediction in the validation cohort, but the pair of NT-proBNP and fibulin-3 (EFEMP1) was the best predictor (AUC = 0.80). This suggests that there were a handful of plasma proteins with mechanistic and functional roles in predisposing patients to the secondary outcomes, although they may be weaker prognostic markers than natriuretic peptides individually. Among those, the diastolic function parameter (E/e' - an indicator of left ventricular filling pressure) and two ECM proteins, EFEMP1 and follistatin-like 3 (FSTL3) showed comparable performance to NT-proBNP and outperformed left ventricular measures as benchmark prognostic factors for post-MI HF. Conclusion: Post-discharge levels of E/e', EFEMP1 and FSTL3 are promising complementary markers of secondary adverse outcomes in AMI patients.

DNA methylation patterns at birth predict health outcomes in young adults born very low birthweight.

BACKGROUND: Individuals born very low birthweight (VLBW) are at increased risk of impaired cardiovascular and respiratory function in adulthood. To identify markers to predict future risk for VLBW individuals, we analyzed DNA methylation at birth and at 28 years in the New Zealand (NZ) VLBW cohort (all infants born < 1500 g in NZ in 1986) compared with age-matched, normal birthweight controls. Associations between neonatal methylation and cardiac structure and function (echocardiography), vascular function and respiratory outcomes at age 28 years were documented. RESULTS: Genomic DNA from archived newborn heel-prick blood (n = 109 VLBW, 51 controls) and from peripheral blood at ~ 28 years (n = 215 VLBW, 96 controls) was analyzed on Illumina Infinium MethylationEPIC 850 K arrays. Following quality assurance and normalization, methylation levels were compared between VLBW cases and controls at both ages by linear regression, with genome-wide significance set to p < 0.05 adjusted for false discovery rate (FDR, Benjamini-Hochberg). In neonates, methylation at over 16,400 CpG methylation sites differed between VLBW cases and controls and the canonical pathway most enriched for these CpGs was Cardiac Hypertrophy Signaling (p = 3.44E-11). The top 20 CpGs that differed most between VLBW cases and controls featured clusters in ARID3A, SPATA33, and PLCH1 and these 3 genes, along with MCF2L, TRBJ2-1 and SRC, led the list of 15,000 differentially methylated regions (DMRs) reaching FDR-adj significance. Fifteen of the 20 top CpGs in the neonate EWAS showed associations between methylation at birth and adult cardiovascular traits (particularly LnRHI). In 28-year-old adults, twelve CpGs differed between VLBW cases and controls at FDR-adjusted significance, including hypermethylation in EBF4 (four CpGs), CFI and UNC119B and hypomethylation at three CpGs in HIF3A and one in KCNQ1. DNA methylation GrimAge scores at 28 years were significantly greater in VLBW cases versus controls and weakly associated with cardiovascular traits. Four CpGs were identified where methylation differed between VLBW cases and controls in both neonates and adults, three reversing directions with age (two CpGs in EBF4, one in SNAI1 were hypomethylated in neonates, hypermethylated in adults). Of these, cg16426670 in EBF4 at birth showed associations with several cardiovascular traits in adults. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that methylation patterns in VLBW neonates may be informative about future adult cardiovascular and respiratory outcomes and have value in guiding early preventative care to improve adult health.

Prognostic modelling of clinical outcomes after first-time acute coronary syndrome in New Zealand.

OBJECTIVE: The Multi-Ethnic New Zealand Study of Acute Coronary Syndromes (MENZACS) was established to investigate the drivers of secondary events after first-time acute coronary syndrome (ACS), including addressing inequitable outcomes by ethnicity. Herein, the first clinical outcomes and prognostic modelling approach are reported. METHODS: First, in 28 176 New Zealanders with first-time ACS from a national registry, a clinical summary score for predicting 1-year death/cardiovascular readmission was created using Cox regression of 20 clinical variables. This score was then calculated in the 2015 participant MENZACS study to represent clinical risk. In MENZACS, Cox regression was used to assess N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) as a prognostic marker for death/cardiovascular readmission in four models, adjusting for (1) age and sex; (2) age, sex, ethnicity; (3) clinical summary score; (4) clinical summary score and ethnicity. RESULTS: Of the 2015 MENZACS participants (mean age 61 years, 79% male, 73% European, 14% Maori, 5% Pacific people), 2003 were alive at discharge. Of the 2003, 416 (20.8%) experienced all-cause death/cardiovascular readmission over a median of 3.5 years. In a simple model, age, male sex, Maori ethnicity and NT-proBNP levels were significant predictors of outcome. After adjustment for the clinical summary score, which includes age and sex, NT-proBNP and ethnicity were no longer statistically significant: log2(NT-proBNP) hazard ratio (HR) 1.03, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.98 to 1.08, p=0.305; Maori ethnicity HR 1.26, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.62, p=0.084. CONCLUSIONS: In 2015 patients with first-time ACS, recurrent events were common (20.8%). Increasing NT-proBNP levels and Maori ethnicity were predictors of death/cardiovascular readmission, but not after adjustment for the 20 clinical risk factors represented by the clinical summary score. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ACTRN12615000676516.

Titration of medications and outcomes in multi-ethnic heart failure cohorts (with reduced ejection fraction) from Singapore and New Zealand.

AIMS: We investigated titration patterns of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEis)/angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) and beta-blockers, quality of life (QoL) over 6 months, and associated 1 year outcome [all-cause mortality/heart failure (HF) hospitalization] in a real-world population with HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). METHODS AND RESULTS: Participants with HFrEF (left ventricular ejection fraction <40%) from a prospective multi-centre study were examined for use and dose [relative to guideline-recommended maintenance dose (GRD)] of ACEis/ARBs and beta-blockers at baseline and 6 months. 'Stay low' was defined as <50% GRD at both time points, 'stay high' as ≥50% GRD, and 'up-titrate' and 'down-titrate' as dose trajectories. Among 1110 patients (mean age 63 ± 13 years, 16% women, 26% New York Heart Association Class III/IV), 714 (64%) were multi-ethnic Asians from Singapore and 396 were from New Zealand (mainly European ethnicity). Baseline use of either ACEis/ARBs or beta-blockers was high (87%). Loop diuretic was prescribed in >80% of patients, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist in about half of patients, and statins in >90% of patients. At baseline, only 11% and 9% received 100% GRD for each drug class, respectively, with about half (47%) achieving ≥50% GRD for ACEis/ARBs or beta-blockers. At 6 months, a large majority remained in the 'stay low' category, one third remained in 'stay high', whereas 10-16% up-titrated and 4-6% down-titrated. Patients with lower (vs. higher) N-terminal pro-beta-type natriuretic peptide levels were more likely to be up-titrated or be in 'stay high' for ACEis/ARBs and beta-blockers (P = 0.002). Ischaemic aetiology, prior HF hospitalization, and enrolment in Singapore (vs. New Zealand) were independently associated with higher odds of 'staying low' (all P < 0.005) for prescribed doses of ACEis/ARBs and beta-blockers. Adjusted for inverse probability weighting, ≥100% GRD for ACEis/ARBs [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.42; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.24-0.73] and ≥50% GRD for beta-blockers (HR = 0.58; 95% CI 0.37-0.90) (vs. Nil) were associated with lower hazards for 1 year composite outcome. Country of enrolment did not modify the associations of dose categories with 1 year composite outcome. Higher medication doses were associated with greater improvements in QoL. CONCLUSIONS: Although HF medication use at baseline was high, most patients did not have these medications up-titrated over 6 months. Multiple clinical factors were associated with changes in medication dosages. Further research is urgently needed to investigate the causes of lack of up-titration of HF therapy (and its frequency), which could inform strategies for timely up-titration of HF therapy based on clinical and biochemical parameters.